2025 in review; looking ahead to 2026

This month’s California Report looks back at 2025 on the bulk wine and grape markets and ahead to what we might expect to see in 2026. Bulk inventory charts for a number of 12-month ranges – and updated for January – are included, so too SipSource US wholesaler depletions data that takes in the opening two months of the important OND sales period, and the first packaging bulletin of the year from our friends at Saxco. A Q&A with Ciatti broker Chris Welch, discussing the current wine consumption and bulk market situation, will be published in the coming days.

It is fair to say 2025 – like 2023 and 2024 before it – was not an easy year for California’s wine industry, nor was it for the wine industry globally. Evolving consumer preferences as the Baby Boomer generation shrinks, persisting post-pandemic inflationary tailwinds, and economic and political uncertainty, have been eroding sales in most major wine-consuming countries. Both the extent and the duration of the sales decline have surprised many, and – now we are almost five years on from the pandemic’s demand spike – cannot be attributed simply to destocking of accumulated inventories.

Much has been made of recent health messaging, but wine’s uncompetitiveness on a price-per-unit basis versus a proliferating array of alternative alcohol products is likely a significant handicap among younger consumers and the 2020s consumer in general, whose spending power remains reduced versus pre-pandemic. In those countries in which wine tends to be priced as an everyday item and not a discretionary purchase – Spain and South Africa, for example – consumption has been stabler.

This month’s report states that, in 2025, “negociant buyers seeking to fulfil private-label programs represented a greater proportion of the reduced buyer pool” in California, fueling the “rising suspicion that private-label sales at club store chains were outperforming the rest of the wine category”. The issue is that production costs for many of California’s growers and wineries are close to, or greater than, the California-appellation pricing levels much of the state’s bulk wines currently command. Consequently, the industry – “from grapevine nurseries right through to wine SKUs on the retail shelf” – has been in retreat.

Are there green shoots of recovery as 2025 turns to 2026? It would be surprising if two consecutive crops below 3.0 million tons, and reduced custom-crushing by growers, do not lead to a bulk market more stable than it was in 2023-25, but only time will tell if the most important factor – retail sales stabilization – finally occurs.

Ciatti’s broker team stands ready to draw upon its many decades of combined experience to help guide buyers and sellers through 2026 and beyond – and would like to wish all its friends, clients and business associates a very Happy New Year.

Read the full Ciatti California Report for January (for subscribers) 

Bulk wine suppliers are invited to list their 2025 wines with us and send in samples, and ensure they have their 2024 wines on our inventory list, so we are able to harness buyer interest as it arises.

Grape growers are recommended to inform us of the grapes they may have available next year, in 2026, so we can work to match-up suppliers with buyers.

Please contact Mark (+1 415 630 2548 / mark@ciatti.com), Michael (+1 415 630 2541 / michael@ciatti.com) or the Ciatti Customer Account Team (cargroup@ciatti.com).