Incremental buying keeps bulk market ticking over

In its ‘World Production Outlook: First Estimates 2025’, published in late November, the Organisation of Vine & Wine (OIV) estimated global wine production at between 228 and 235 million hectolitres. The mid-range projection – 232 million hectolitres – would, the OIV stated, represent a 3% recovery from the provisional 2024 figure of 225.8 million.

We suspect the OIV’s midrange projection could be an overestimate, as it includes a questionable expectation of the US harvest: rather than larger as the OIV states, California’s 2025 crop is widely assumed to have come in even smaller than 2024’s twenty-year low. Widespread non-harvesting of uncontracted grapes meant a disparity between crop potential and the tonnages that in fact crossed the scales.

The OIV’s estimate of Italy’s harvest could also be downwardly revised, after reports that some deleterious effects from adverse conditions were manifesting themselves later in picking. A downward adjustment in Italy’s crush – from 47.4 million hectolitres to something closer to the 44 million proposed by Legacoop Agroalimentare – would confirm that only South Africa and New Zealand of the major wine-exporting countries crushed above their five-year averages in 2025. Generally, around the world, we see production being proactively reduced as the industry searches for supply-demand balance, and we are potentially seeing some results of that on the bulk market.

In the final quarter of the year, most of those markets experiencing slow activity could blame low inventory and/or elevated pricing, which has sent buyers looking elsewhere for supply. The more ‘normal’ overall feel of the market pace is likely due to two years of smaller harvests in combination with the just-in-time sourcing model, widely adopted in order to reduce exposure to risk: securing volumes in smaller, more numerous increments, rather than one large annual purchase.

January’s Global Market Report stated: “Steps to right-size supply into better balance with demand will yield results all the quicker if consumption stabilises in North America and Europe. All hope 2025 will be the year.” Unfortunately, 2025 did not turn out to be that year.

The ongoing consumption decline, and how much more rebalancing has to take place, were naturally a central topic of conversation at the World Bulk Wine Exhibition in Amsterdam last month. WBWE was, as ever, an important networking opportunity – Ciatti’s brokers, and Ciatti’s stand, were kept busy – but reflected the current bulk market reality: a good number of enquiries, but more for smaller volumes than in the past.

With its global reach and local connections, Ciatti stands ready to help buyers and suppliers navigate the market challenges through 2026, and beyond. In the meantime, the team would like to wish all of its friends, clients and business associates a Happy Holidays and a prosperous New Year.

For the very latest bulk wine and grape market developments and opportunities, subscribers can read to the full Ciatti Global Market Report for December on Substack.