Harvests downgraded; buyers largely unmoved

The recent downgrading of Italy’s 2025 crush-size forecast means that none of this year’s major Northern Hemisphere winegrape harvests are now projected to reach their five-year averages. At least three, in fact, are expected to fall considerably short, due to climatic conditions but also vineyard removals and mothballing. As this month’s Italy page points out, this raises the possibility that “global wine output in 2025 will come in lower than in 2024”, a year that – according to the International Organisation of Vine & Wine – saw the lowest wine production since 1961.

Indicative of demand pressure at the retail end, or the lack of it, the response of bulk wine buyers has mainly been to sit back and assess rather than jump onto the market, especially where wine prices have risen. As one of our European pages states this month: “Suppliers were understandably pushing for pricing in line with the short vintages of old, but the current market fundamental – ongoing wine sales declines at European and North American retail – means that short crops do not stimulate demand like they once did.”

In its recently-published 2025 annual report, New Zealand Winegrowers (NZW) gave a succinct evaluation of the predicament facing the New Zealand wine industry that could also be said of the world of wine as a whole. “The industry is concerned by the slow global economy and weak wine markets in key export destinations,” the report stated, “exacerbated by new regulatory impositions, including tariffs in the US and taxes in the UK”. Consequently, inventory levels are “higher than wineries desire”.

NZW did go on to say, however, that “lighter refreshing styles are outpacing overall wine category performance”, which should stand not only New Zealand’s whites in good stead but whites and lower/low/no-alcohol wines in general – for example, from China, traditionally such a red-focused market, we have been increasingly receiving requests for white wines from a number of producer countries.

As ever, this month’s report outlines bulk wine availability, pricing and activity in each major producer country. There are calls to action for buyers – the Northern Hemisphere harvests are, after all, coming in short – and some eye-catching buyer opportunities are listed, including on wines diverted from the bottled market.

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