Sampling is in full swing on the Southern Hemisphere’s 2025 vintage and quality has been rated very positively. The great majority of sampling activity is being carried out by longstanding customers with established programmes and tenders; new buyers, and new programmes, are few. Only Chile and New Zealand experienced non-average crop sizes but in contrasting ways – Chile’s was as much as 25% short, New Zealand’s is expected to have been “very large” despite fruit going unpicked in response to generous carryover stocks. 

The shortness of Chile’s crop triggered brisk early sampling by international buyers and the securing of batches by domestic buyers. Even in this context, however, the lack of new international business has been noticeable. In the Northern Hemisphere, meanwhile, bulk wine markets have been proceeding steadily, with activity largely consisting of incremental demand for small volumes on a just-in-time basis. 

The persistence of flat or declining wine sales at North American and European retail – in some countries now into its fourth year – is leading to the rationalisation of wine SKUs and the ceding of shelf space to rival beverages. As this month’s Ciatti California Report states: “Many shoppers seem to be keeping an eye on their discretionary spending as the long tail of the postpandemic inflation boom continues. Meanwhile, younger demographics such as Generation Z (which now accounts for all drinkers under the age of 28) are seemingly less susceptible to wine culture.” Until wine sales – the core fundamental – move back into the black, the bulk market will stutter on. 

The Organisation of Vine & Wine (OIV) has provisionally estimated that global wine consumption in 2024 was 22 million hectolitres smaller than in 2019, which – going on OIV harvest figures – equates to roughly one half of a typical Italian crush or an entire Californian crush. Below this headline consumption retreat, the mix of demand is changing, with a growing preference for white wines and lighter wine styles of all kinds. Argentina, for example, is now receiving Scandinavian tenders not just for its typical red-wine offer but more rosé, whites, and sparkling. The general movement towards lighter wines has recently become more focused on wines specifically positioned as low alcohol – perhaps at 6-10.5% – and no-alcohol wines, two small but growing segments encouraged by consumer health trends (and in the UK, a new alcohol duty regime that incentivises lower-ABV wines). We are weekly receiving enquiries into these wine types. 

Summer is underway in the Northern Hemisphere and, in general, vineyards appear healthy. As it stands, human hands will be affecting crop size more than Mother Nature’s: some growers, struggling with cashflow, are economising on treatments, while bunch-thinning is occurring in California in an attempt to keep grape supply in line with demand. All in the industry hope that by the time the Northern Hemisphere’s 2025-vintage late-season reds are fully mature, in early 2026, sales will have finally returned to the black. After all, the price-quality ratio of the bulk wine offer is currently very favourable for the consumer. Don’t hesitate to reach out to the Ciatti team for the latest buying and selling opportunities; in the meantime, read on for updates from each market.

Read the full report