The Southern Hemisphere harvests have wound down and their sizes seem variable: while Argentina’s and South Africa’s appear to have come in close to their downwardly-adjusted averages, Chile’s is estimated to be approximately 25% short; the crop sizes in Australia and New Zealand remain harder to quantify, with some grapes – mainly reds in the former, whites in the latter – unpicked to assist in balancing supply. 

It is mid-spring in the Northern Hemisphere, meanwhile, and despite some inclement weather across Europe through March, the vineyards of France, Italy and Spain appear in good condition. March was also wet in much of California, which has now experienced three consecutive winters of average or above-average snowpack for the first time since 1998-2000. It likely that the grape market more than conditions will dictate the 2025 harvest size in California, judging by the number of vineyards across the state yet to be pruned. 

The bulk markets of the world have largely been slow and steady, as buyers assess 2025 wine availability in the Southern Hemisphere and sample, and keep one eye on the frost risk in the Northern Hemisphere. Hesitancy also pervades the market, globally-speaking, given wine’s continuing sales struggles in key markets; first-quarter retail sales were disappointing for many. The prospect of tariff wars – and resulting economic turbulence – has been an additional drag on confidence since the turn of the year, and sure enough April brought a number of tariff and counter-tariff pronouncements that shocked world markets. 

Turning down the tariff noise and dialling up the facts, the headline is: all wines from all major wine-producing countries now face a 10% import tariff on entering the US market, regardless of any pre-existing Free Trade Agreements. It is a level playing field of sorts, unless the higher tariffs initially threatened on EU and South African imports come into effect after their three-month suspension. There will doubtless be further alterations to this regime. For now, see this month’s Tariff Update for a summary of where things stand. 

Amid the noise, business carries on. The projected harvest shortfall in Chile, coming on top of limited carryover, has stimulated a big upswing in buyer enquiries, sample requests, and transactions. In general, Chile’s pricing is higher than it was 12 months ago. Another area of – albeit less dramatic – activity is on southern French Vin de France wines, in reaction to high pricing on Spain’s entrylevel wines. All markets are united this month in observing a rise in enquiries into low and no-alcohol wines. As the France page reports: “These wines have certainly built up the most concerted buyer interest of any of the market innovations of recent times, such as orange wines, natural wines or light reds.” 

Low/no-alcohol wines, plus the buying opportunities that currently exist on a host of bulk wines, can help programmes target the increasingly health and price-discerning consumer: Pricing on Argentina’s Malbec and generic white, and New Zealand’s Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc, continue to soften; volumes of southern French IGP wines are being offered at VDF pricing; South Africa has 2025 Cinsault rosé produced on speculation; California’s Coastal bulk wines have softened in price and now represent an eye-catching price-quality opportunity for mid-tier programmes. Don’t hesitate to reach out to the Ciatti team for the latest opportunities; in the meantime, read on for updates from each market.

Read the full report