This month’s Global Report marks the 100th issue under my editorship. I wrote the introduction to my first issue, July 2016, just days after the Brexit referendum in my native country. Four months later, Donald Trump was elected president of the US for the first time. “Trump and Brexit: we live in interesting times,” I wrote in November 2016, and of course the interesting times were just getting started. Tariff wars; a global pandemic; war in the Ukraine. Wine consumption surged in some markets during COVID-19, then fell back, in some instances to below pre-pandemic levels. The Chinese demand bubble deflated, exposing a declining sales trend in developed markets that had been ongoing since the 2007-08 global financial crisis, so that the International Organisation of Vine & Wine estimated that worldwide wine consumption in 2023 was at 1996 levels. Hectarage consequently had to contract, and has done so, most notably in France, California, Chile and Australia. There is a neat symmetry in writing this 100th introduction days after Donald Trump was elected president for a second time, putting tariffs back on the agenda. You can read more about that on the following page. The interesting times are set to continue. 

The Northern Hemisphere harvests are now complete and all appear to have come in below their five-year averages, with France (-17%) leading the estimated shortfalls in Europe ahead of Italy (-12.8%) and Spain (-4.7%). The extent of the deficit in France comes as a surprise; a number of downward revisions have recently been made as the consequences of an array of unfavourable conditions between flowering and harvest became apparent. California’s 2024 harvest remains hard to quantify; our guesstimate remains 3.2-3.3 million tons, below the five-year average of 3.5 million tons and last year’s 3.6 million. 

The shorter Northern Hemisphere harvests of 2023 and 2024 sandwiched below-average Southern Hemisphere crops earlier this year, a potentially helpful development for inventory levels during a period of struggling retail sales. The lack of need is illustrated by, to quote this month’s France page, the bulk market “exhibiting none of the early energy that would – in years gone by – have been stimulated by such a short crop”. That said, this month there are calls to action on a number of wines, including specific Italian appellations and white wines in South Africa and Chile, demonstrating that supply is not universally plentiful. And particularly on varietal and generic white wines, lower pricing would likely unlock more transactions. Plenty of pricing opportunities do exist: for example, this month we cite Californian supply (generic through to high-end), high-end Chilean reds, southern French Pinot Grigio (competitively priced versus Italy’s), and 2023 New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc. 

As ever, Ciatti will be on hand at the World Bulk Wine Exhibition – in Amsterdam on the 25-26th November – with the very latest opportunities for buyers and suppliers alike. Need to turn around wine in rapid time? Come see us in Hall 5, on stand D42-44. In the meantime, read on for the latest from each market.

Read the full report