The California Department of Food and Agriculture’s preliminary 2023 grape crush figure, published February 9th, totalled 3,668,294 tons, in line with Ciatti’s pre-harvest projections of 3.5-3.7 million tons. The crop was 8% larger than 2022’s 3.39 million tons but the fifth consecutive crop to come in below the 4-million-ton mark. At least part of the shortfall was attributable to uncontracted grapes going unpicked: Many wineries were willing to receive grapes only to the contracted volumes and then held growers to that number. 

Chardonnay’s total tonnage was up 24.1% versus 2022 to 651,610 tons, re-taking the crown as the state’s largest variety which it briefly lost in 2022 to Cabernet (itself up, by 14.1% to 646,941 tons). Versus 2022, some 66,000 extra Chardonay tons were harvested in Lodi and Clarksburg combined. Sauvignon Blanc experienced the same percentage growth as Chardonnay, up 24.1% to 162,765 tons, while Pinot Gris tonnage was up 19.1% to 233,935 tons. White tonnages in general outgrew reds by 15.3% to 2.3%, with Zinfandel and Merlot the only major varietals to fall back, by 26.2% and 2.1% respectively. Total state-wide pricing was up by an average of 8.5%. For a more complete breakdown of the preliminary harvest result, and more comment, see Ciatti’s press release here. 

California’s bulk wine and grape markets remain sluggish and it is doubtful if the greater clarity regarding the 2023 harvest size will stimulate any uptick in activity, considering the fundamentals are yet to visibly change at the retail end. However, as of January, the Conference Board’s index of US consumer confidence stands at its highest level since December 2021, thanks to slower inflation, expectations of reduced interest rates, and favorable employment conditions. Interestingly, this “surge” in confidence was highest among a key demographic for wine – “consumers 55 and over”. There remains a hope that the distributor/retailer downward inventory adjustment that took place through 2023 has paved the way for more stable wine need in 2024, if consumers start re-entering the wine aisles in greater number. 

Through December and January, much of California experienced precipitation levels adequate enough to instill confidence in the water supply for the coming growing season; many reservoirs are at, or near, capacity. Some of the storms that blew through were warm, limiting Sierra Nevada snowpack levels to 50% of normal as of January 31st, raising a question mark over water supplies for later in the growing season. A combination of wet vineyard conditions and uncertainty around 2024 grape demand has noticeably delayed pruning in some instances. 

Read on for a detailed assessment of the bulk wine and grape markets as they currently stand and – for the most up-to-the-minute information – get in touch with Ciatti directly. The broker team stands ready to draw on its decades of experience to help guide buyers and sellers through whatever 2024 brings, and beyond.

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